The town of Kapan, a sleepy mining community nestled in the mountains of southeastern Armenia, is an unlikely hub for international diplomacy. But in October, Armenian officials gathered in its central square to cut the ribbon on a brand-new consulate—and welcome the delegation arriving from the Islamic Republic of Iran.
Just two miles away from the site of Tehran’s newest international mission is the border with Azerbaijan. The surrounding Armenian region of Syunik—of which Kapan is the capital—is at the heart of the growing dispute between Yerevan and Baku, which fought a brief but bloody war over the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region in 2020. Now, Tehran is wading into the dispute, throwing political and military support behind Yerevan.
Days before the consulate opened, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced its troops were staging “massive” war games on Iran’s border with Azerbaijan. According to Iranian Brig. Gen. Mohammad Pakpour, the drills were designed to send a message of “peace and friendship” to countries in the region, while demonstrating their ability to “respond decisively to any threat.”
In response to the escalating tensions in the South Caucasus, U.S. State Department spokesman Ned Price told reporters in early November that Washington has been “very clear that Iran represents a threat to the region” and will continue “ultimately to stand against the kind of destabilizing influence that Iran presents and—in its region and perhaps beyond.”
As a relatively liberal democracy that prides itself on being the world’s first Christian nation, Armenia is an unlikely partner for Iran. However, after Armenian towns and villages along the border came under heavy bombardment from Azerbaijan briefly in September—with Western officials blaming Baku for firing first—Yerevan is looking for support wherever it can find it.
Despite Yerevan’s membership in the Moscow-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) military bloc, Russia has so far refused Armenia’s calls to intervene. Iran, meanwhile, seems more than eager to fill the power vacuum and open another front against Azerbaijan and its backer, Turkey, which Iran has long mistrusted and seen as a potential rival in the region.
In November 2020, Yerevan and Baku signed a Moscow-backed cease-fire agreement following more than a month of fierce fighting over Nagorno-Karabakh, which is inside Azerbaijan’s internationally recognized borders but has been held by Armenian forces since the 1990s. After a string of defeats on the battlefield, Armenia acquiesced to handing over control of swaths of territory and committed to “guarantee the safety of transport communication” between mainland Azerbaijan and its enclave of Nakhchivan through the Syunik region—which divides the two—“with a view to organize the unimpeded movement of citizens, vehicles and cargo in both directions.”
Since then, Azerbaijani officials have made it clear that they interpret the pact as meaning they should be granted a sovereign highway, billed as the “Zangezur corridor,” that would run through the southernmost part of Syunik, potentially dividing Armenia and Iran. Yerevan, however, insists that demand has no basis in the 2020 deal. Analysts were quick to attribute September’s hostilities to Baku’s growing frustration over the failure to get what it wants through diplomatic channels.
Distracted by its war in Ukraine, the Kremlin appears unwilling or unable to act as a security guarantor for Yerevan, even though it is a member of the CSTO and obliged to step in if its partner is attacked. Russia’s decision not to send troops to the country after September’s clashes led to mass protests in Yerevan, with Armenian demonstrators calling for withdrawal from the CSTO. In November, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev declared that talks about the Zangezur corridor were taking place with Moscow, not Yerevan, and that Armenia would be unable to resist the plan if the Kremlin was on board.
source: foreignpolicy
